The active weather system in the southern Caribbean Sea has a 90% chance of forming over the next five days

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Posted: Thursday, October 6, 2022. 7:09 a.m. CST.

By Benjamin Flowers: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is warning people in Central America to closely monitor a weather system in the southern Caribbean Sea over the next few days.

NOAA’s latest Tropical Outlook says the active weather system has an 80% chance of forming a storm within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of forming within the next five days. The weather system is described as a broad and elongated area of ​​low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea, just off the coast of Venezuela, continues to produce a large area of ​​showers and thunderstorms over southern Windward Islands, northern South America and adjacent waters. .

“While land interaction with the northern coast of South America may impede significant development over the next day, environmental conditions are expected to be most favorable for development as the system moves westward at around 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a day or two as it enters the south-central Caribbean Sea,” NOAA said.

The administration also said the system is expected to strengthen as it moves westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea toward Central America from Friday into Sunday and that, regardless of the development, Heavy rains with localized flooding, as well as gale force wind gusts, are expected over parts of the Windward Islands, northern parts of Venezuela, including Isla Margarita, the ABC Islands and the Guajira Peninsula in Colombia over the next day or two.

The National Hurricane Center also issued advisories for Tropical Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Belize’s National Weather Service held a press briefing yesterday, during which Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon stressed that there was a small chance the system would move further west-northwestward and have a direct impact on Belize. Gordon said that thе еаrlіеѕt іt соuld rеасh thе аrеа іѕ оn Ѕundау, wіth thе іmрасt оf rаіn аnd ѕо оn ехресtеd ѕtаrtіng оn Моndау аnd Тuеѕdау, but іt іѕ ѕtіll ѕubјесt tо іntеnѕіfісаtіоn аnd ѕо іmрасtѕ соuld bе wоrѕе.

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